Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3949
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3949 · PHX → PSP
departs 3:35 PM MT · arrives 4:54 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at PSP more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at PSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PSP?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
3pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
PSP is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PSP
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.82 in
PSP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.