Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3952
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3952 · SGF → DFW
departs 1:03 PM CT · arrives 2:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
SGF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SGF
↓
1pm departures from SGF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SGF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.