Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3958
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3958 · TUS → PHX
departs 1:47 PM MT · arrives 2:44 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
TUS usually runs smoothly
↓
This flight has been late 13% of the time recently
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.