Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4019
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4019 · CID → PHX
departs 6:16 PM CT · arrives 7:31 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
↓
CID usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CID (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.82 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.