Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4052
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4052 · DFW → SPS
departs 1:02 PM CT · arrives 1:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SPS more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SPS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SPS?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SPS that day
↑
1pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Arrivals into SPS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SPS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.