Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4052
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4052 · SPS → DFW
departs 2:41 PM CT · arrives 3:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SPS that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
SPS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SPS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.46 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,667 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.