Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4053
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4053 · ABQ → PHX
departs 3:08 PM MT · arrives 3:40 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ
↓
ABQ usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.