Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4090
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4090 · TAM → DFW
departs 1:53 PM CST · arrives 5:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave TAM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TAM
↓
1pm departures from TAM are usually not late
Weather at each end
TAM (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,667 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.