Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4113
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4113 · DFW → MHK
departs 4:43 PM CT · arrives 6:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MHK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MHK?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at MHK that day
↑
4pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
MHK usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,667 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
MHK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.