Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4113
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4113 · MHK → DFW
departs 6:46 PM CT · arrives 8:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at MHK that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
MHK usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MHK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.23 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,667 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.