Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4114
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4114 · STS → PHX
departs 1:10 PM PT · arrives 3:29 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at STS that day
↓
STS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.