Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4127
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4127 · HOU → DFW
departs 2:06 PM CT · arrives 3:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 24%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.