Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4170
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4170 · OKC → ORD
departs 12:39 PM CT · arrives 2:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 31%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at OKC that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
OKC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.32 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.