Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4195
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4195 · PHX → CID
departs 6:51 PM MT · arrives 11:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at CID more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CID?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Arrivals into CID at that hour are often late
↓
CID usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.82 in
CID (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.