Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4219
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4219 · PHX → ICT
departs 7:15 PM MT · arrives 11:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at ICT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ICT?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
ICT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.82 in
ICT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.