Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4245
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4245 · VER → DFW
departs 12:06 PM CST · arrives 3:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave VER more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
12pm departures from VER are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
VER (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.