Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4251
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4251 · ORD → FSD
departs 10:46 PM CT · arrives 12:27 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 14%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
FSD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FSD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.