Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4267
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4267 · PHX → ABI
departs 6:59 PM MT · arrives 11:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 26%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABI more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at ABI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABI?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 267 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ABI that day
↓
ABI usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.82 in
ABI (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 267 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.