Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4269
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4269 · DFW → ABQ
departs 4:14 PM CT · arrives 5:14 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,667 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.