Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4279
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4279 · DFW → MAF
departs 6:09 PM CT · arrives 7:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 38%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MAF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MAF?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MAF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,667 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
MAF (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.