Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

CHINA EASTERN · FLIGHT MU 589 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 30 Today

MU 589 · PVG → SFO

departs 2:15 PM CST · arrives 8:47 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PVG

Weather at each end

PVG (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MU 589 · PVG → SFO

Odds over time