Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 142
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MX 142 · TPA → MEM
departs 6:02 PM ET · arrives 7:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.