Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MX 1515 · SWF → CHS
departs 12:15 PM ET · arrives 2:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SWF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at CHS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CHS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SWF is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into CHS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SWF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CHS
Weather at each end
SWF (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CHS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.