Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1606
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MX 1606 · GPT → TPA
departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 9:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave GPT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GPT
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at TPA that day
Weather at each end
GPT (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.