Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1707
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MX 1707 · LAS → SNA
departs 3:06 PM PT · arrives 4:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
MX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.