Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1766
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MX 1766 · PHX → RIC
departs 1:03 PM MT · arrives 8:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
↓
RIC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.56 in
RIC (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.