Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 2499
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MX 2499 · ACY → TPA
departs 7:31 PM ET · arrives 10:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave ACY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ACY
↓
ACY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ACY (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.