Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MX 409 · EYW → RDU
departs 11:58 AM ET · arrives 2:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↑
MX's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW
Weather at each end
EYW (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.