Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MX 866 · RDU → TPA
departs 9:00 PM ET · arrives 11:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at TPA that day
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.