Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ANA · FLIGHT NH 5 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

NH 5 · LAX → NRT

departs 12:58 PM PT · arrives 5:18 PM JST

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at NRT more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to NRT?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ NRT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

NRT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

NH 5 · LAX → NRT

Odds over time

How late will it get to NRT?