Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ANA · FLIGHT NH 8401 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

NH 8401 · ORD → NRT

departs 3:19 PM CT · arrives 6:15 PM JST

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at NRT more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to NRT?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Arrivals into NRT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

NRT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

NH 8401 · ORD → NRT

Odds over time

How late will it get to NRT?