Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5086 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

OH 5086 · DFW → ICT

departs 8:11 PM CT · arrives 9:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ICT?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ ICT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,533 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precipnone

ICT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5086 · DFW → ICT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICT?