Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5207 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

OH 5207 · DFW → MAF

departs 8:05 PM CT · arrives 9:31 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MAF?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MAF that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,533 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precipnone

MAF (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5207 · DFW → MAF

Odds over time

How late will it get to MAF?