Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5402 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

OH 5402 · MAF → DFW

departs 5:29 PM CT · arrives 7:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MAF that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ MAF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MAF (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.33 in

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,667 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5402 · MAF → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?