Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5478 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

OH 5478 · PHL → DSM

departs 8:39 PM ET · arrives 10:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5478 · PHL → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?