Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5583 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

OH 5583 · PHL → CVG

departs 7:40 PM ET · arrives 9:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5583 · PHL → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?