Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3021
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 3021 · SAN → FAT
departs 5:03 PM PT · arrives 6:31 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
FAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.