Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3053
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 3053 · SNA → STS
departs 12:42 PM PT · arrives 2:26 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at STS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STS?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from SNA are often late
↑
STS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at STS that day
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
STS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.