Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3103
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 3103 · SBA → SAN
departs 6:08 AM PT · arrives 7:21 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SBA are usually not late
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.14 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.