Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3141
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 3141 · STS → SAN
departs 4:38 PM PT · arrives 6:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 31%
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at STS that day
↓
OO's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
STS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.