Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3449
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 3449 · SBA → SAN
departs 2:24 PM PT · arrives 3:36 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 33%
Tue 11/3 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
SBA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.