Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3464
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 3464 · SAN → AUS
departs 10:39 AM PT · arrives 3:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 29%
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 36%
Tue 11/3 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.