Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 3494 · SNA → SFO
departs 4:19 PM PT · arrives 5:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29 26%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 45%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from SNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.02 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.