Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3776
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 3776 · LAX → TUS
departs 2:10 PM PT · arrives 3:50 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.09 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.