Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3842
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 3842 · LAX → SJC
departs 2:30 PM PT · arrives 3:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 11%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
This flight has been late 11% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.