Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3842
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 3842 · SJC → LAX
departs 4:26 PM PT · arrives 5:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 10%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
This flight has been late 10% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.