Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3873
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 3873 · SEA → LWS
departs 9:35 PM PT · arrives 10:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 9%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 10%
Tue 11/3 10%
Wed 11/4 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LWS more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LWS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at LWS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LWS?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↑
9pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
This flight has been late 8% of the time recently
↓
LWS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
LWS (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.