Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3911
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 3911 · SEA → SNA
departs 2:39 PM PT · arrives 5:31 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.