Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3916
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 3916 · SAN → LAS
departs 3:50 PM PT · arrives 5:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/29 41%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 35%
Tue 11/3 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.