Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3949
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 3949 · DTW → ELM
departs 9:26 PM ET · arrives 10:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 8%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 12%
Wed 11/4 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ELM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELM?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
ELM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ELM (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.